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Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Black swan evening


7 comments:

Armchair Critic said...

Figuratively as well as literally? Now that would make for an interesting post.
All the swans are heading to the left. Like the Roy Morgan poll. Coincidence, of course.

robertguyton said...

Yes, the two events are coincidental, that is, happening at the same time. The poll trend clwearly points to a left-wing victory at the next election, but that no surprise to the punter with the wide view. What that left-wing Government might be like is another matter. Russel is showing himself to be very capable indeed and he has the scent of victory, both electoral and on a personal demolish-the-Nat-MPs-one-at-a-time level, in his nostrils. He has a steady eye and has weaned himself from reading out his attacks. Even the seasoned Winston Peters can't do that. Nor can Key, except where he's been drilled.

Armchair Critic said...

After a day of deliberation, one of my conclusions from watching the speakers on the stage last night is that a long game is being played. My guess is that the election will be a foregone conclusion several months before the election, due to what many on the right will see as a black swan event.

corokia green said...

I have an issue with the 'black swan' concept because all the swans I ever see ARE black.

Armchair Critic said...

It's a sign CG - nothing is unpredictable, however many things are unpredicted.

corokia green said...

I know AC and it works for people in the northern hemisphere where they never see black swans. It's just a personal thing, it doesn't work as a concept for me because I've only seen black swans. I've also always disliked 'down under', another imported northern hemisphere term. Contrary, I am.

robertguyton said...

Yes, AC, Mr Peters and Mr Dot Com were rock-solid confident.