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Sunday, June 8, 2014

What's with the polls???

This person has the best analysis ever on how the polls are being used to shape voter behaviour.

8 June 2014 at 8:40 am

Interesting though to compare polls with I Predict. Is this because polls seem to lag behind the issues which are current? EG The Budget a strong point for National so affects the polls. But this rise in polls emerges later and is then presented by many media commentators as a reaction to the events which are concurrent with the poll. Labour announcements of policy are then interpreted as not producing a rise in the current poll. The timings of the NZ tv polls seemed to favour the ruling party as they missed most of the Judith Collins scandal and waited for The Budget. The poll that did register reaction to this, only one, was Roy Morgan poll which had left bloc ahead. So timings and reporting of polls are an important factor. Polls are used in this way to quiet down dissenting views as a positive poll for National is released strategically after a difficult period and can be seen to stultify any opposing views. Then if a poll does register support for Opposition parties it is not reported on front pages and headlines. I am not disagreeing with many comments made on tentative and undisciplined behaviour by some MPs, but polls do appear to be being used to Shape opinion rather than reflect opinion. If you analyse the timings, the reporting, the overarching narrative that most of the media seem to reiterate, the dominant message that comes through is “National are going to win, the Left are disorganised, don’t bother resisting, There is No Alternative”. This is working very well too as so many people who are not going to vote National still feel overwhelmed by the feeling they are out numbered. people like to back winners. Group dynamics have powerful effects on emotion. Emotion is what John Key uses to manipulate people. He has been good at it till now too but slippage is occurring. I think he has misread public opinion on Housing, Immigration, tourist drivers and Dot Com. He looks mean spirited. Lets see what happens next but lets do be sceptical of Polls, they are a powerful manipulator, in my humble opinion.

(From The Standard)

1 comment:

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