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Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Roy Morgan - where's that going, I wonder?


Armchair Critic said...

It's ticking along to the next election, though that's not what you are asking. In fact I'm convinced your question is rhetorical.
There is a clear trend, and it does not favour the government. However, if you were one of the ever decreasing number of people who support the government, there are many valid reasons for ignoring or dismissing the trend. My guess is you won't get much comment on this post. How recent is the survey?

robertguyton said...

The most recent, I believe.
What 'valid reasons for ignoring the trend' could you be referring to? The promise of a brighter future? The up-turn in our economic fortunes? Are Key's gambles all due to pay out between now and then? Are they valid reasons?

Armchair Critic said...

what valid reasons...?
from looking at a couple of my favourite right wing blogs....
The best reason I can see is that they are too busy with their fingers in their ears and eyes tightly shut, chanting "la la la la la la la can't hear your la la la..." to have even noticed the trend.
It's a funny thing, faith, it's very difficult to have your idols mocked and revealed to be false. It's also funny what and who we choose to idolise. Some people idolise money traders. Weird, huh?
So, there's a couple of reasons. I had a third one; it escapes me at present.
I see you are still banned at KS, and I think that's hilarious; you must have really pissed him off. I don't know whether my watermelons comment ever got published and I don't care to look.
Finally, it seems ironic that despite their apparent dislike of all things green, the two dominant colours in the banners at KS and homepaddock are blue and ..... ?

robertguyton said...

Both are echo chambers for Nat-strat and neither should be proud of their shilling, imo.
Mocking idols! That's it in a nutshell and the very reason I was permanently banned from Kiwiblog (twice - record!) and Keeping Stock (ho hum).
Whenever I hear 'idol' I think 'feet of clay' and 'hollow'. Call me a cynic.

paulinem said...

Roy Morgan polling techniques are questionable ..they do phone polls by land line ..ahh a lot of NZers do not have telecom landlines these days.. I also read from someone whom said it was a Roy Morgan poll ( cannot verify on Trade me disscusson board ) that they phone and send forms to people to fill in and return mrket research I assure you self filling postal polls are considered the most unreliable of polls.

fredinthegrass said...

You can be a wee 'naughty' with your comment sometimes, Rg. But banning you means I have to visit you "at home" where you get away with soooooh much.

Armchair Critic said...

All polls are wrong, paulinem, and some are useful.
Though the techniques used to collect data are flawed, as they are with all polls, as long as they are applied consistently trends can be identified.

Armchair Critic said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Paranormal said...

Interesting that the RM poll follows what you would expect for a poll taken mid cycle for a second term government. And yes the trend is important. However polls also need to be read in conjunction with an overview of the political landscape. This will always be subjective. That's why you RG are so cock o hoop, and so are the Gnats supporters at the same time. You are both seeing the same thing as good for your team.

Interesting that the other polls out recently are the opposite of the RM poll.

My pick today is that if there is no gamechanger in the next 18 months (ie. another major disaster or similar) we'll see a record low turnout at the polls. That will lead to the Gnats winning through, in coalition with either or all MP,UF,or WinstonF. It is possible the Gnats could get over 50% but I doubt it. Even if they did they would be wise to enter into a coalition - if just for someone to blame.

This is based on the green/red team continuing to scare away the voters with hard left rhetoric. It appeals to the converted but the non politicised voters don't like it. That's why they vote for Key. He appears to not be a political animal. The memories of Helengrad are still too recent.