Rain band expected to bring more floods
"The South Pacific will fall victim to more extreme floods and drought as greenhouse gas emissions nearly double the likelihood of severe weather events in the next 100 years, new research has found.
In a paper published in international journal Nature, Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation has found that greenhouse gas emissions are pushing the South Pacific rain band toward the equator more often."
The article, published in today's Southland Times, continues...
"The impact associated with the observed extreme excursions includes massive droughts, severe food shortage, and coral reef mortality through thermally-induced coral bleaching across the South Pacific."
The piece finishes with this not-so-encouraging comments from Victoria University associate professor of physical geography James Renwick...
"Although some extreme events could prove devastating for small countries, New Zealand was probably far enough south to avoid much change. He said that assuming the research was correct, the only way to mitigate the problem would be to reduce greenhouse gas emissions."
Hang on! Isn't Hawaii in the South Pacific!!!
Monday, August 20, 2012
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6 comments:
that might be correct ,, but it needs to be placed within the context of geological time to get a correct perspective .
temperature in this region has increased by about 6 degrees over the last 20,000 years an in fact 10,000 years ago was about 2 degrees warmer than it is today
co2 concentration has only increased during that period by 100 ppm
this would demonstrate that the , co2 forcing of about 5x as included in ipcc models is obviously , from a historical view incorrect ,
the last 3000/ 1500 years has been a relatively stable period as far as temperature goes ,, so the present temperature increase of about .5 to .7 is relatively small compared to past movements ,
the last 20,000 years has seen this region continue to climb out of a glacial period , these cycles are very very common back thru geological time and infact earth is usually a cooler place ,, these interglacial warmer periods are a time of great biological growth and advancement as far as mans history is concerned ,
to say the present warming trend is unusual , or new or extreme is obviously not correct ,
and when you consider the much larger movements in temperature in the recent past could not have been caused by mans industrial activity,
This makes the present theory of man made global warming quite ridiculous ,
man kind has been recording temperature data in real time only for about 150 years ,, and we started to do so as we continued to climb out of a cooler glacial period,.
so in other words this would be a very very poorly designed scientific test if we were to assume that 150 years ago we started temp recording at a zero or stable base line ,
proxy temp data going back hundreds of thousands of years demonstrate this ,
where are we heading temperature wise now,
there is good opinion based on what we know historically that we have entered into a very slight cooling period that will last for about 30 years or so and then the warming cycle will continue .
this is why the much vaunted dr Hanson of man made global warming noteriety was warning everyone in the late 70s of an impending global cooling crisis ,because the pacific ossilation was in a less active cooler period
these events are cyclical and we are approaching the latter part of a warming cycle ,, as determined by orbital mechanics ,, solar output and resultant ocean warming.
the ocean temp changes have majour effects on weather, as distinct from climate
our majour influence in this area is the pacific ossilation el nino , la nina .
inevitable earth will descend into another glacial period as it has many many times in the past ,, and it has warmed again with out the influence of man or the theory of co2 driving temp.
That might be correct?
We need to, precautionary Principle and all, be taking action to protect those countries 'in the firing line'. The article suggests reducing greenhouse gas emissions as the only mitigation possible. You up for that, BS buster?
Best advice is, don't begin any new coal mining. I agree with that advice. Fracking gas fields would be of the same order. Leave the coal-seam gas in the coal seam. What do you say to that, BS?
"Hang on! Isn't Hawaii in the South Pacific!!!"
Yes, isn't.
I knew it!
Plate techtonics. Will their restless never cease?
Precautionary principle only works if it is precautuionary and doesn't create more problems.
What you are suggesting is limiting future opportunities to do what might be required when we discover the real casue of the problem.
From the evidence it is not apparent that CO2 is the cause of the problem. Yet the Greens wish us to debilitate our economy by reducing CO2 output to the extent that we would be unable to afford further scientific endeavour that may uncover/correct the cause of the problem.
First do no harm is an appropriate measure to take when wanting to 'cure' this 'ill'.
Paranormal
"The worst thing about political crusades is that they manufacture “facts”. That is to say they mass-produce lies. As a now-skeptical environmentalist Fritz Varenholt noted, movements to save the world tend to force the data into the narrative. After a while the public, force fed a diet of press releases, come to believe the narrative is the fact. Writing in the Telegraph Varenholt describes when he first noticed that the books were being cooked:"
http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2012/08/19/the-past-future-tense/#more-23880
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