Robert, have you seen the latest reports on global cooling? it seems that the Sun is about to skip a sun spot cycle and is at an extreme low ebb. Some scientists are suggesting this is the first time since the little ice age that such conditions have occurred and this is unprecedented in modern history.
And for the record, can you verify the above graph's accuracy? I have seen several that show a 10 year cooling trend, is this not true?
Shunda - just enjoy the graph and the way it points to denier's relentless clinging to their position. I've had discussions with people who cite the global cooling report but will reserve my judgement on what they predict will happen, while I contemplate what the scientists say is happening already. This graph does the latter. The graphs you've seen that show a ten year cooling trend are false :-)
Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have reached a new peak despite the economic recession in western countries and assurances from politicians that they intend to cut emissions, new research has shown.
Preliminary data from the US government's Earth Systems Research Laboratory at Mauna Loa in Hawaii, where measurements of CO2 have been continuously monitored for almost 50 years, show that 2011 CO2 levels peaked last week at 394.97ppm. This is an increase of nearly 1.6ppm on last year and the highest ever recorded.
The research comes after estimates from the International Energy Agency, revealed by the Guardian on Monday, that carbon-dioxide emissions from energy generation in 2010 were also the highest in history. About three-quarters of the energy emissions increase in 2010 came from developing countries, including China and India, said the IEA.
The continuing upward trend of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is alarming climate scientists who say that levels must be held at or around 400ppm if we are to have any chance of avoiding serious climate change.
"This underlines the urgency of the problem. The CO2 figure continues to grow rapidly [and] can only accelerate while industrialising countries [such as China and India] do not decarbonise their economies because they have an increasingly large share of total emissions", said Dr Alice Bows, lecturer in Energy and climate change at Manchester university's Sustainable Consumption Institute.
The Mauna Loa monitoring station, run by the US government's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – situated at 12,000ft and well away from major pollution sources in the middle of the Pacific – is considered the most reliable place to measure concentrations of gases in the atmosphere .
If present trends of a 1.5-2ppm annual increase in CO2 levels continue, there is little chance of stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 ppm. This would only result in a 50% likelihood of limiting global warming to 2C. Climate scientists say it would be necessary to achieve stabilisation well below 400 ppm to give a relatively high certainty of not exceeding 2C.
Two degrees is the point that scientists consider to be the threshold for "dangerous" climate change which, once passed, will leave millions exposed to drought, hunger and flooding.
"It's not too late to stop dangerous climate change if the world acts now – and fast. We need to save energy, reduce demand, and develop safe and renewable alternatives to polluting fossil fuels," said Mike Childs, head of climate at Friends of the Earth.
The new CO2 peak comes as 189 countries prepare to resume the UN climate talks in Bonn. No final agreement is expected this year because of continuing disagreements between rich and poor countries but progress is expected to be made on reducing emissions from forestry and securing cash to enable the poorest countries to adapt their economies to increasingly severe climatic events.
Concern? It will possible have an effect on the situation but that is one that is steadily worsening due to mankind's efforts. Hoping that a sun spot will save us from the effects of our foolishness is a overly optimistic, imho. Meanwhile, lets oppose new coal mines, and support a moritorium of 10 years at least, until the situation changes in our favour. As it is, we'd be mugs to dig lignite out of the ground. We can't capture the greenhouse gases and we'll get bugger-all for it at this stage of the energy cycle. Are you for that Shunda?
Solar physicists have issued a prediction that the sun may be entering a period of unusually low activity called a grand minimum. This has climate skeptics speculating that solar 'hibernation' may be our get-out-of-jail-free card, cancelling out any global warming from our CO2 emissions. However, peer-reviewed research has examined this very scenario, "On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth" (Feulner & Rahmstorf 2010). What they found was even if the sun fell into a grand minimum, global temperature would be diminished by no more than 0.3°C. The sun is not our get-out-of-jail-free card.
Thanks Thrash. That's a very specific address to Shunda's concerns and one I'll take with me into the council chamber and use to quell the flames of denial that smoulder therein. Shunda - your belief that being a tidy Kiwi will reverse climate change is wrong, according to Dr James Hansen. I want you to be correct on this because it would suit my purposes well if it were the case but it aint. Hansen says and those who advise him say,that there is one thing and one thing only that will give us even the ghost of a chance to cool off - leaving un-dug coal in-situ - not grubbing it out, no matter how many jobs are promised or how big our supposed debt is. We need a predictable climate. A spotty sun isn't going to magic away the problem.
12 comments:
Robert, have you seen the latest reports on global cooling? it seems that the Sun is about to skip a sun spot cycle and is at an extreme low ebb.
Some scientists are suggesting this is the first time since the little ice age that such conditions have occurred and this is unprecedented in modern history.
And for the record, can you verify the above graph's accuracy? I have seen several that show a 10 year cooling trend, is this not true?
Shunda - just enjoy the graph and the way it points to denier's relentless clinging to their position. I've had discussions with people who cite the global cooling report but will reserve my judgement on what they predict will happen, while I contemplate what the scientists say is happening already. This graph does the latter.
The graphs you've seen that show a ten year cooling trend are false :-)
From The Guardian; 31 May 2011.
Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have reached a new peak despite the economic recession in western countries and assurances from politicians that they intend to cut emissions, new research has shown.
Preliminary data from the US government's Earth Systems Research Laboratory at Mauna Loa in Hawaii, where measurements of CO2 have been continuously monitored for almost 50 years, show that 2011 CO2 levels peaked last week at 394.97ppm. This is an increase of nearly 1.6ppm on last year and the highest ever recorded.
The research comes after estimates from the International Energy Agency, revealed by the Guardian on Monday, that carbon-dioxide emissions from energy generation in 2010 were also the highest in history. About three-quarters of the energy emissions increase in 2010 came from developing countries, including China and India, said the IEA.
The continuing upward trend of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is alarming climate scientists who say that levels must be held at or around 400ppm if we are to have any chance of avoiding serious climate change.
"This underlines the urgency of the problem. The CO2 figure continues to grow rapidly [and] can only accelerate while industrialising countries [such as China and India] do not decarbonise their economies because they have an increasingly large share of total emissions", said Dr Alice Bows, lecturer in Energy and climate change at Manchester university's Sustainable Consumption Institute.
The Mauna Loa monitoring station, run by the US government's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – situated at 12,000ft and well away from major pollution sources in the middle of the Pacific – is considered the most reliable place to measure concentrations of gases in the atmosphere .
If present trends of a 1.5-2ppm annual increase in CO2 levels continue, there is little chance of stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 ppm. This would only result in a 50% likelihood of limiting global warming to 2C. Climate scientists say it would be necessary to achieve stabilisation well below 400 ppm to give a relatively high certainty of not exceeding 2C.
Two degrees is the point that scientists consider to be the threshold for "dangerous" climate change which, once passed, will leave millions exposed to drought, hunger and flooding.
"It's not too late to stop dangerous climate change if the world acts now – and fast. We need to save energy, reduce demand, and develop safe and renewable alternatives to polluting fossil fuels," said Mike Childs, head of climate at Friends of the Earth.
The new CO2 peak comes as 189 countries prepare to resume the UN climate talks in Bonn. No final agreement is expected this year because of continuing disagreements between rich and poor countries but progress is expected to be made on reducing emissions from forestry and securing cash to enable the poorest countries to adapt their economies to increasingly severe climatic events.
Love the graph Robert.
Great background evidence Jonesy - that'll have Shunda abandoning his denialist ways. Mr Hubber too and that's not said lightly!
So the sun spot issue is of no concern then?
Concern?
It will possible have an effect on the situation but that is one that is steadily worsening due to mankind's efforts. Hoping that a sun spot will save us from the effects of our foolishness is a overly optimistic, imho.
Meanwhile, lets oppose new coal mines, and support a moritorium of 10 years at least, until the situation changes in our favour. As it is, we'd be mugs to dig lignite out of the ground. We can't capture the greenhouse gases and we'll get bugger-all for it at this stage of the energy cycle.
Are you for that Shunda?
Solar physicists have issued a prediction that the sun may be entering a period of unusually low activity called a grand minimum. This has climate skeptics speculating that solar 'hibernation' may be our get-out-of-jail-free card, cancelling out any global warming from our CO2 emissions. However, peer-reviewed research has examined this very scenario, "On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth" (Feulner & Rahmstorf 2010). What they found was even if the sun fell into a grand minimum, global temperature would be diminished by no more than 0.3°C. The sun is not our get-out-of-jail-free card.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/How-would-Solar-Grand-Minimum-affect-global-warming.html
So what caused the little ice age then Thrash?
Are you for that Shunda?
What I am for is a return to true environmentalism.
Dealing with forest clearance, wet land retention, pest species and true sustainable communities.
All this AGW crap has done is set back genuine environmentalism by decades.
If we address these other issues we will address any human caused climate change by default.
That is what I am for.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/A-detailed-look-at-the-Little-Ice-Age.html
Thanks Thrash. That's a very specific address to Shunda's concerns and one I'll take with me into the council chamber and use to quell the flames of denial that smoulder therein.
Shunda - your belief that being a tidy Kiwi will reverse climate change is wrong, according to Dr James Hansen. I want you to be correct on this because it would suit my purposes well if it were the case but it aint. Hansen says and those who advise him say,that there is one thing and one thing only that will give us even the ghost of a chance to cool off - leaving un-dug coal in-situ - not grubbing it out, no matter how many jobs are promised or how big our supposed debt is. We need a predictable climate. A spotty sun isn't going to magic away the problem.
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