I'm picking the vertical line indicates the 2011 election, at which the difference in the sampling polls translated into a one seat majority. As I said yesterday, the sampling polls show the support for the government has fallen and support for the opposition has risen. It seems reasonable to assume that the one seat majority has gone. The "too close to call" assessment on the Roy Morgan website looks a lot like wishful thinking these days.
2 comments:
I'm picking the vertical line indicates the 2011 election, at which the difference in the sampling polls translated into a one seat majority. As I said yesterday, the sampling polls show the support for the government has fallen and support for the opposition has risen. It seems reasonable to assume that the one seat majority has gone. The "too close to call" assessment on the Roy Morgan website looks a lot like wishful thinking these days.
Your assessment trumps Roy Morgan's.
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