Support for Key’s Coalition partners has barely changed with the Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%), United Future 0.5% (unchanged) and ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged).
Support for Labour has risen 0.5% to 32.5% (the highest Labour has been since July 2011),
Support for Labour has risen 0.5% to 32.5% (the highest Labour has been since July 2011),
Greens are 13% (up 1%), New Zealand First 4.5% (up 0.5%), Mana Party 0.5% (unchanged) and Others 2% (up 0.5%).
18 comments:
And what pray tell was the margin of error?
"Pray tell"?
Are you from the 19th Century?
Ha avoided the question Rob
Ha! Of course I did. The question is of no interest to me. If you want to know what the margin for error was, pray look it up yourself, lazy commenter.
The greens are riding on labours demise, if labour rises, the greens and that dork peters fall. If anyone needs to start praying, its him
Nonsense,Towack. The Greens are soaring on their own wings with the public sickening of the greedy drill baby drill Tory exploitation and disregard for democracy, and will fly into Government at the next election. I'm sending Metiria your mugshot and a sample of some of your comments. She'll come down and give you a well deserved whopping once the partying's done.
Nonsense,Towack. The Greens are soaring on their own wings with the public sickening of the greedy drill baby drill Tory exploitation and disregard for democracy, and will fly into Government at the next election. I'm sending Metiria your mugshot and a sample of some of your comments. She'll come down and give you a well deserved whopping once the partying's done.
What with there being no election scheduled for a bit more than two years, the actual proportions are interesting but not that relevant.
What is relevant is the trends. For National and the right the trend is inexorably downwards. With such a slim majority, the result of the next election seems inevitable.
Have u factored in another leadership change for the parties on the left AC?
Is Metiria really a violent person, or are you just type-casting?
Is Metiria really a violent person, or are you just type-casting?
She's a gentle as a lamb. Towack calls her tomboy. She's more 'earth mother', though she's a lawyer. She's very hard to pin down, as she's physically strong, by the look of her. I wouldn't mess with her, though she has a warm hug.
AC you are right about following trends.
Unfortunately this Roy Morgan poll is not going to do it for you as it says things are stable in that any ‘movement’ is actually inside the margin of error - suggesting there may have been no movement to develop a trend from.
Paranormal
The Greens are in a powerful position now, paranormal, and up-coming events will lift them higher and higher in the polls. Metiria for PM!
Can we hold you to that RG?
However what will happen is as you become a larger threat you will be placed under greater scrutiny. You will find it will be those politically closest to you that will deal most of the damage. Just look at how Gillards Labor government are behaving.
Wed Wusel has done a good job of trying to improve the party image for the more mainstream voters. You just need to make sure the muzzle stays on mad Catherine, Metiria & co.
Your real problem will be when Liarbour sort their crap out you'll plummet again as labour voters head home.
Paranormal
That's not going to happen, para. The Greens have gained ground and they'll not lose it. Labour will improve enough for the coalition to take the next election and national will never again get anywhere near the Government benches. You can hold me to that, by all means :-)
Anonymous - it's a Roy Morgan poll and it seems so obvious that they don't factor in leadership changes on either side that it goes without saying. Leadership changes can go either way, in terms of gaining or losing support, so I suspect that by trying to factor them in the polling company would just add uncertainty to the outcome. As my comment relies on the data provided by Roy Morgan, via Cr Guyton's blog, my assumptions are about the same.
Paranormal. The sample size is 1,026. The Roy Morgan website say that for a 1,000 size sample, the margin of error at a 95% confidence level is 1.4%. The same Roy Morgan website says that support for National dropped by 2%. Even allowing for rounding up, this shows a statistically significant decrease in support for National, since the last Roy Morgan poll. Looking longer term, to say a year back when National were polling above 50%, the long term trend is well outside the margin of error, and for National and its slim majority, it's a downward trend.
All things being equal, and barring a major meltdown on the left, which is possible but less likely than a meltdown on the right, the next government will include the Greens and Labour.
...which is exactly how I would have put it, paranormal, had I the grey matter of Armchair Critic.
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